As part of our ongoing commitment to provide you with everything you need to know about the UK property market, we’re rounding up what happened during Q3 2025 and what to expect from the housing market for the rest of the year.
With Q3 behind us, and 2026 around the corner, we’re taking a look at what’s happening across the UK property market, how the shared ownership sector is changing and what the market looks like for first-time buyers.
What’s happening in the UK housing market now that Q3 is done?
As always, around this time of year, the direction of the UK property market is being dictated by one thing: the Autumn Budget.
Data suggests a more subdued market as people wait to see what the Budget will mean for homebuyers, particularly around changes to various taxes, including stamp duty.
While the summer months generally see less activity anyway, it’s not unusual for September and October to be much more active, a trend that unfortunately didn’t occur this year. According to Landmark Information Group, listings across England and Wales fell by 1% in Q3, while the number of properties marked as ‘Sold Subject to Contract’ (SSTC) was down 6% over the same period.
Likewise, this uncertainty around the Budget continues to subdue price growth throughout regional markets, with average prices across the Midlands and the North experiencing falls of 0.5% towards the end of September, whilst the South saw prices decrease by around 2.1%.
What is fortunate is that there’s plenty of stock in the market, with a recent RICS survey suggesting that the market currently has the largest level of stock since 2016, which could support a rush of activity following confirmation of what’s happening in the Budget.
With this in mind, CBRE expects there to be around 1.2m total sales in 2025, which would be an 8% annual increase.
What can we expect from house price growth over the rest of the year?
Despite this subdued activity, JLL believes that the UK housing market is on a path of ‘slow but steady recovery’ and that house prices will grow by 3.5% in 2026, adding up to a cumulative growth of 19.9% over the next four years.
They believe this growth will largely be attributed to lower mortgage rates, although affordability could limit the overall potential, especially in more expensive prime areas.
In terms of the rental market, JLL believes that UK rents will rise by 17.1% on average over the next five years, once again reinforcing why affordable schemes such as Shared Ownership may help people who are struggling to save for a deposit whilst also privately renting.
How do things look for first-time buyers?
At the time of writing, the outlook for first-time buyers is not too dissimilar to what it was last quarter.
Many lenders continue to ease their regulations around mortgages and affordability, whilst a steady stream of transactions is ensuring more people get on the ladder.
Whilst the majority of experts believed that transactions would hit 1.2 million per year by the end of 2027 - the traditional annual benchmark - it’s becoming increasingly likely that we’ll hit that by the end of this year instead.
That said, many first-time buyers are likely holding out to see if the Budget will deliver the changes to property tax that are being suggested.
With rumours circulating that Stamp Duty Land Tax may be abolished in exchange for a new tax entirely, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a flurry of activity after the Budget is delivered on 26 November.
